I’m Calling The Bottom in the S&P 500 | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (06.16.22)

Comments (27) on “I’m Calling The Bottom in the S&P 500 | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (06.16.22)”

1. I pulled a big pile of money out of the market 2 weeks ago. I’m putting some of it back in this morning . May not be at bottom but it’s closer. I’m looking for the hedge funds to push the markets up going into the end of the month to make thier numbers look better for the quarter.

2. I don’t think people will feel the grip of inflation weaken today and tomorrow. So I think the bear will continue. 75bp was baked in already from Monday, consumers haven’t been shocked so much so that they’d stop spending, news media on TV and online aren’t giving us any alarming news that are making consumers think it’s over. So inflation will carry on. The only way inflation will stop/slow down significantly is to make a drastic announcement : e.g. Feb funds rate up +200bp or something like that! The market will crash, people will stop going to MacDonald’s, people will cancel their orders on Amazon, cancel vacation, etc… Until something like that happens, this slow cooking of 50/75bp over next so many meetings will just delay inflation control, and I think people might even get used to 6/7/8% mortgage rate, $7/8 gallon gas, $20 big Mac meal, and still go on about their lives while the market will continue with bull traps….😬🙄🤔

   1. True.yes will get used to it 👍👍👍

3. Would love to hear your thoughts on the housing market also. And we keep having days around 34 to 35 on the vix. But we haven’t seen a capitulation into upper 30s or low 40s. Do you think we should expect that?

4. So long as the fed continues to tighten. There wldnt be a bottom yet.

5. Way too soon. I’ve got my cash on the side and waiting until there is an upward trajectory. So far it’s been nothing but down and no news to change any of that. No reason to get back in. I’m not worried about missing the bottom, I’m worried about preserving my money. There will be plenty of time in the future to make $ on the market. Right now is not the time. We probably have to wait until at least after the mid-terms are over in November.

   1. Add a comment…

      Spencer Winston
      1 second ago
      Tom, astute analysis, yet a major question behind your premises. Behind market confidence for a bottom has to be trust. The trust in the system is evaporating faster than Janet Yellen’s admission of mea culpe in “misreading” inflation. We are doing the next generation a serious harm in not calling out the Keynesian “Marxian” policy prescriptions behind Fed action. If you based your call on Austrian School analysis instead of PR confidence games from the Fed, then a market bottom could be formed on real market data backed by real interest rates and non manipulated data. We need men of your gravitas and market expertise to call out the fundamental dangers lurking under PR press releases as oil prices surge and food prices explode, The Fed is just rearranging the deck chairs on a Western sinking ship taking on water from the years of deception coming out of the confidence PR games of the Fed and the Potomoc. I know you have vast business and trading acumen, but for the sake of the next generation we need to call a spade a spade and restore Austrian School market authenticity for our precious next generation. TY for all your efforts and the first class professionalism at stockcharts.com with the strong business and professional economic followings.

   2. Couldn’t agree more (see my comment). Frankly to me it’s looking rather like the main act is coming and what we have seen sofar was a sneak preview. What clearly lacks I would say the process of writing down earnings estimations by analysts. And the FED keeps standing in the way of the market too. Caution!

   3. @Spencer Winston the problem with Austrian school analysis in investing is that it has no short-run predictive power vis a vis what those with power to manipulate markets might do, i.e. the Fed, the Treasury, and the MIC.

   4. True.👍👍👍🍀🍀

6. I disagree. Follow the government policy. We need a Fed pivot.

7. Started to partially buy, it certainly feels like we’re getting closer. Nothing lasts long at one stretch.

8. IF I look at the chart of SOXX and RSP I have massive difficulties to “see a bottom forming”. In technical terms it’s rather “breaking down” with gaps from levels that must be seen as tops. the same is true for copper and therefore all in all things look dire and we clearly see that the market is factoring in a recession.

9. Nowhere close yet IMO.
   Triple witching this Friday and the ^VIX is below 40.
   At this rate the earliest I see buying back into this market is the late fall 2022 or early winter 2023.
   This is all dependent on future data. ^VIX above 40+ and the market hitting and critical support levels.

10. Tom, you set a record for comments. I went “all-in” with ya today. #intomwetrust

11. I am a member of EarningsBeats. I can attest to the fact that Tom called the market top before anybody else I am familiar with in the business. I give him a lot of credit for that. I also give him credit for having the courage to make such a bold prediction like this-which he does caveat, BTW. As far as this being the bottom, I am skeptical. With a recession probably forth coming (not certain), the bear market could be extended for a long time which means a lot of time and opportunity for things to go wrong along the way. But, Tom could be right. He knows more about markets than I ever will.

12. I use the signal line of the MACD to see if a stock or index is trending or not. Now the signal line sharply cut the MACD Line indicating that the S&P 500 is now in a downward trend. It usually takes 4-6 weeks before the signal line cuts the MACD Line again which ends the trend. Also if you look at the Chaikin Money Flow you can see that the selling has been going since June 9 and it just turned below the zero line indicating negative sentiment. It may drop to the same level it had in April and May. Maybe the market fears the Q2 earnings and the fact that Bitcoin is dragging everything else down.
    Just my 2 cents.

13. I don’t think it’s the bottom. But then again the market has a nasty habit of doing the opposite of what I think it’ll do…🤔😁

14. Tom Bowley is the most pop-culturally aware analyst I know of. He has a TV show, movie, or song for every move the market makes lol.

15. Definitely close to the bottom but I think we need some good news such as the Ukraine war ending, inflation tapered, or a positive Q2 GDP.

    1. dont think we are near any of those

16. Running out of sellers. My goodness it only stops when the computers stop selling. The djia down today 2.42 percent, the defensive stock I’ve been watching for months was down today 2.42 percent. Coincidence or just the bots doing what they are programmed to do?

17. No way this is the bottom. The Fed changed their mind at their last minute from 50 to 75, because they saw inflation still high. Until they slow down tapering, Don’t Fight the Fed.

18. Tom appreciate your effort. We need the vix to get upto almost 50… until then we are headed lower. I like you said we are in the process…. the process!!! could be this process takes months.

19. Tom, thanks for your great insights! Spot on, growth stocks with real strength today while Crude Oil starts to roll over!

    1. I would like to add that the S and P left 3 gap downs in a row! The perfect set up for a short squeeze to fill at least 2 of them.

20. I think that’s a bad and dangerous idea.
    We’ve all learned that bottoming is a process not an event.
    The macro picture suggest we are more like the CY2000-2002 decline in asset prices – and we had lower liquidity levels going into the future thus suppressing available credit.
    Also, historically, markets have turned in the past when the financial mess gets passed to main street. When you start seeing a lot of people fall upon hard times, you’ll start seeing asset markets recover.

Comments are closed.