S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis Elliott Wave for Investing or Day Trading
SPX S&P 500 Elliott Wave : Wave c) of 4. tradinglounge.com
Trading Levels: 3300 resistance
SP500 Trading Strategy: holding short positions
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mixed feelings about this analysis.
March low move ending diagonal?
Thanks 4 the waffle!
I have to say again Pete that your trading levels are second to none.
Once I grow the balls to acctually stick to them i will be able to quit my day job.
Awesome work!
It is not the money management that is the problem it is stickning with the trade to target that is the problem. But small profits are better than losses.
Some more clarity will come in the next few hours of trading. 🍻
Another possibility is that the overlap is from wave 4 of a higher degree. But I agree with overall analysis. I sent news to my friends that today when DOW drop 900 in initial trading I was extremely excited but cautiously recommend waiting for more confirmation. I am on the camp that market had bottomed today but even if it would be anytime this week the pain is minimal. Most people already panic when their hedge in 3280 gap expired worthless on Friday so I expect a lot of short squeeze this week. Market makers have successfully defended 3280 gap to expire worthless so now they are triggered all stop loss under 3300 religiously until every weak hands are out then gap higher to rally to 3800. Implied volatility in Q1 2021 indicate an upset to 3800 for Biden (no trade war with China and more stimulus) with possible 4400 if Trump win (more tax cut and buyback). Either way we will visit 3400 level again in Q1 2021 when estimate for 2023 is released. Right now stock is rallying on Q4 2022 estimate where Apple is trading near book value. Usually FB or NFLX lead the wave count but this time TSLA is leading the wave count. Pete is a great analyst. When gold hit 1800 I know the bottom is either today or in coming days this week. Labor day rally didn’t come due to Bob Woodward’s bombshell that increased a chance for second lockdown under Biden’s presidency like in Europe. But I expect one more rally to 3800 by December. Right now presidency is less important as market bet even if Biden win Senate GOP will block him from rising taxes. Especially with GOP nomination of SCOTUS.
@TradingLounge Pete you are very generous. I am no where near Armstrong. I exited all of my position on Thursday January 23 after market reported Intel’s earnings and bought the dip on March 16 as semiconductor lead the market. I really looking forward to collaborate with great mind like you. This Roaring Twenties is an understatement, it should be termed Soaring Twenties. You will meet with cashiers, janitors, securities, anyone you can name trading Apple and Tesla on Robinhood. As New Low Observer estimated using Jay Gould method DOW will blast through 130,000 by 2032. We will have hyperinflationary depression like the world never saw. I won’t fight the FED. FED only will die when Dollars no longer the world currency. Until then I will ride this Roaring Twenties. https://youtu.be/7wJ_BTOLxxo
@TradingLounge NQ ES confirmed that market bottomed yesterday. I bought Tesla yesterday when it drop to 400. I buy panic. Your count is better than Henry, he is betting SPX going to 3130.
@TradingLounge FB is similar to GOOG but with a failed wave v in early September. Small wave B. MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN already break above Gann angle so I expect the laggards will follow. Market makers want to make call options below 3200 expire worthless by December. Presidency no longer crucial. With vaccine by December 2nd lockdown under Biden is unlikely. The only black swan is how fast FDA will approve 3 vaccines? Market expecting October 22 when FDA meeting with the 3 companies. Any delay will make market repeating 2018 again. I am on the camp that we’re in wave 3 with vaccine hype. We will blow off the roof to 3800. Market sentiment is too bearish for me to sell. I need to see confident then I will sell to take profit. A contrarian creed.
Many thanks dear Pete, brilliant analysis as always&usual. Im expecting one more leg down to 3170 area (1$ billion option buyers). Yet its a market’s “favorite number” ending xx72. Be safe, sir, thanks again for the clarity!
Awesome work as usual Peter. FWIW our analysis at all levels are the same. Perhaps that’s a good thing? We’ll see. Thanks again for your technical analysis.
I have started watching these videos regularly. Question about the classic trading pattern chart. You have a STOP indicated later in time and below in price from the ENTRY, but how do you know at the time of ENTRY at what price to place the STOP trade? Thanks.
@TradingLounge Thank you.
Don’t you think this March move is ending diagonal?
Pete can you take a look at fsly now? It’s over 90. Don’t you think that there needs to be more downside given the sharp drop? The A wave is huge but potential C wave isn’t proportional to it. It rejected 100 already but bounced at 70. Do you think this could be a stock you can add to your list of stocks you are watching as well? where do you suggest going long for a trade?
TradingLounge looks like FSLY did find support. Almost going to take out the high now at 117. Where do you think this wave 5 can end? the extension seems to have been in wave 3.
TradingLounge thanks Pete, good plan. Definitely want to buy the wave 2 for this stock
@TradingLounge huge drop after hours on FSLY!
@TradingLounge it’s actually down 25+ % around 89 now. Can that still be wave 4?
@TradingLounge great! No I wasn’t long, have been waiting months for a wave 2 pullback. (61% of March low to the wave 3 peak) added to the wave 4 low gave a target of 140ish for wave 5. It peaked at 138 looks like. Crazy how accurate that was. 61% retracement now looks at the 60 area