In this video we discuss three reasons why the stock market may not crash anytime soon. From The Federal Reserve's 'transitory inflation' to an outperforming S&P 500, we discuss why the market may not be doomed after all!
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Let me know your thoughts! Likely stock market correction in the next few years? Or will it keep powering ahead?
EVERGRANDE!!! Gonna bring the market down, you heard it here first. (Half hour before US markets open.
The US will default on debt then the economy will crash.
Care to revisit Alibaba and other Chinese companies’ risk factors now?
I expect declines in certain overvalued growth ($TSLA) and “meme” stocks.
Point #2 has the most validity. Solid earnings drive the Market. But when and if Mega Cap growth companies issue Profit warnings, then it’ll be Armageddon for the Stock Market.
Thing is, the fed will ofc claim that this is all “transitory” but is it, really? The fed has injected so much money into the system yet they say that the inflation comes from the supply side? How does that make sense?
In my view the current American monetary policy is one of the most reckless routes taken in decades.
Inflation is rising, because there is more money in the system. This screws up the housing/stock market as one cannot make a profit at these levels, and people’s wages aren’t rising with inflation, thus losing buying power.
@Jamie Walkerdine not in the immediate. The problem with inflation is once it gets going, it’s really really difficult to rein in. Just because they could theoretically whack interest rates really high doesn’t spell a good situation, that would lead to mass unemployment etc anyway.
@Augustus331 Well August, I also carry an EU (Irish) passport, I seem to recall how Brexit was never going to happen also. Now France is pissed off, Germany is having to find new leadership and seeing the rise of the far fascist right, the ECB is actually running the show, and the bureaucracy in Brussels is utterly unable to control the affairs of the union, just look at Poland and Hungary flipping the bird to the Council of the European Union, and Scotland planning another plebiscite on ending the UK.
Seems to me you are whistling past the graveyard when you say how solid the union is.
@Augustus331 Q1 2020 Euro zone debt to GDP = 96.86%
Q1 2020 US debt to GDP 108.1%
That is your definition of “much lower?”
@Mark Walker you stated the have higher debt than the us.
That is entirely specious math there Augustus, and I suspect you KNOW it. In fact the ECB does have a debt ration of 99% at the moment, but then the individual nations within the compact also have their own debt, and right now the list of nations that are above the limit are Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Cypress, France, Belgium, Croatia, Austria, Slovenia, Hungary, Finland, Germany. Of course you could point out that the debt levels of the Zone and the member nations do not matter since the ECB can and probably will (are with deeply negative rates) just print their way out of the problem.
The US has said that it plans to raise interest rates within the next few years. Also, for 2013 tapers, there were taper tantrums. A correction on average happens every 1.8 years. So it’s going to happen. Hopefully it’ll be a really big crash rather than a correction. 😀
well, predict correction is more dangerous than stay in the market. Peter lynch: people lose more money preperin for the correction than in the corretion/crash.
@Miguel Angel Sam Lee that’s a good point from Lynch tbh
@Miguel Angel Sam Lee I am planning to stay in the market. When giving reasons why there might be a crash, I don’t mean pull your money out before or during. I mean that hopefully it will be a crash so that we all can buy at great discounts.
I agree high inflation is temporary, is high compared to last year when COVID appeared and affected all the economy and people held back to spend at the beginning. Then with all the help of the Government people began to spend again.
Interesting to take one’s opposite view. Of course the market will crash, but when? Nobody knows. As for me, I think it needs to crash, in order to purge the economy and I’m actually hoping for it, the sooner the better.
Corrections happened regularly in the past and will happen regularly in the future. It is healthy for the market, and for anyone investing for the long term it is an opportunity rather than a problem. As long as you can control your emotions and not sell at the bottom.
@That Guy777 buffet has been continuously selling for a few quarters now, I assume to have liquidity for the right moment.
If theres not correction, the big boys cannot realize their profit
BTFD🚀
@z3bru this was a bit different, he probably feared a bankruptcy
@That Guy777 I very much doubt that.
The market will crash sooner or later for sure, but it’s hard to predict when. I am dollar cost averaging, investing the same money regularly, and if the crash occurs I will deploy money into the companies I’m following and further money into the sp500.
this video is more into logic but not technical,
technically speaking the market is way overvalued and it’s forming a huge bubble that will crash many many companies.
amazing video appreciate all the hard work done,
keep it up
1) Further Inflation will have a negative impact on USD influence
Rising the interest rate or allowing the economy to balance itself both leads to the same outcome
2) Last 3 crashes, most of the top 10 companies were still doing well before the crashes
The current major top 10 might have more resilience compared to the previous top 10 and early 2020 crash proved no company is immune to market panic
3) Things are getting worse in actual fact, just a matter of time to face reality
“Things are going to get better” is the government way to manage expectations in current era else their destiny is set in stone for the next election
The Questions is:
Is it better to let the bubble explode for exponential recovery or continue to leverage on the future with unforeseen consequences?
2 of the super power has chosen a different path for the above and which will pay more in the long run is obvious.
Euphoria never last and pessimism follows.
I’ve been investing for over 30 years now, been through all the crashes, and typically the Fed causes a crash with interest rate increases to address inflation or some other monetary objective. However, I’ve never seen the Fed printing money like they are now, and the debt levels and spending is off the charts. In my opinion, they are stuck in this mode and will eventually debase the currency enough and inflate prices to the point they will destroy the profit margins of these large companies. I think we all know that the CPI is an inconsistent and ineffective measurement of real inflation due to all the manipulation, it is much higher than 5.3%. The PPI is more important than the CPI, this is where the companies feel the pain and when they begin to miss quarterly targets, or warn of margins under pressure, the crash will probably begin. I worked at large Silicon Valley tech companies for 30 years, you will be amazed at how quickly changes happen, and quickly they are to react to margin pressures. 100% the market is coming down, FOMO is in full swing, margin trading is off the charts…etc. Its the perfect storm of chasing returns, it’s not investing, it’s Vegas! Seen it all before many times….
Thanks for watching! Text on wh@tsapp
Amazing comment
Thanks!
Remember the fundamentals always look good before a crash. Otherwise it wouldn’t be a crash.
Say that to 08′ boi
People are talking about deep corrections happening or having happened in smaller stocks in the S&P, but when those start to get bought up it’ll just drive us back up. Nobody is selling the megacaps, they’re buying in search of yield. There are Trillions that would normally be in bonds desperate for yield.
I expect more flash crashed in certain market segments moving forward but I cant see full on corrections without something REALLY major happening
Thanks~~~< for watching<>_and don’t forget.. to hit the like><~button and if you want~<~advice and insight...on investment...>>watsap – ++①=③=⓪=⑤=⑦=④=①=②=③=⑧=⑥…….
He mentioned that global supply chains are getting back on track.. being someone directly involved in many manufacturing industries and working with hundreds of large clients.. I can tell you definitively that this is not correct. Supply chains continue to get worse, lead times longer, and prices for many goods are still increasing. Be cautious everyone
Thanks~~~< for watching<>_and don’t forget.. to hit the like><~button and if you want~<~advice and insight...on investment...>>watsap – ++①=③=⓪=⑤=⑦=④=①=②=③=⑧=⑥…….
One thing I always have at the back of my head is the Rockefeller’s advice on how to earn during times like this; while others are panicking and selling or holding, just go a different route and invest right now, there’s no better time.
@Tepper Timmy
Lisa Jill Grenell is the investment manager, punch in the name online, she is quite popular so you’ll find all the deets you need.
Then why is Warren Buffett sitting on 130 billion dollars in cash?
@TheManic10 Warren Buffett has most of his portfolio in stocks, that cash is around 20% and it’s for having liquidity. He doesn’t try to time the market, instead he buy individual stocks when he find them at a price that he consider good (an effect of that is that he would end buying when the market is down, but he is not timing the market, he is just tracking individual companies).
@Jesse Liver I just looked up this person out of curiosity, surprisingly she seems really proficient, I thought this was just some overrated BS, I appreciate this.
Hey mate, great video. Speaking of negative catalysts, do you feel that the impending Evergrande default will be the sort of negative catalyst that could trigger shocks in the market? Interested to hear your thoughts.
Great stuff. I watch several youtube videos on how to trade in the stock market but haven’t made any headstart because they are either talking some gibberish or sharing their story of how they made it and I do not want to make mistakes by taking risks in my own hands.
Have you considered consulting an investment advisor or using a portfolio manager?
@Jack Whittaker hi, no I haven’t do you know any or can you point me in the right direction?
@Jack Whittaker I want to go into stock but i need a certified/registered professional who will guide and handle my account.
@christopher Gomez ASHLEY AIRAGAHI is one of the trader I have ever worked with in the past few years, she knows how best to deal with whatever market situation.
@Jack Whittaker I just looked her name up on the internet and i got everything i need to know about her.
Thank you for the reliable content. I’ve been doing a lot of research lately and a lot of your content has helped me. I’ve decided to invest my first 600 in IVV for the long term and will continue to add to it. I haven’t decided which other investment to make in the market yet but I like that IVV isn’t too broad, is focused on profitable companies and is slightly easier to manage with tax. I will still continue to save though because I do want to invest in property in the somewhat near future. Thanks again mate 😊
“Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” One thing I’m sure of is that the market will ALWAYS eventually crash. Maybe not anytime soon but it will, eventually.
Good arguments for a delay in the adjustment but it is still an inevitably in a bull market which we are certainly experiencing at the moment which makes the video about preparing for a crash much more relevant