SP 500 Elliott Wave Market Update
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Hi Pete, I agree with most of what you said today, and what you have been saying, which helped a lot the last few days, as it’s played out largely how you discussed. The difference I see now though, is this current drop seemed more like a wave 4 to me, and I found some logical ways that could be the case (but I won’t go into detail on that for time reasons). It could be important because if this was a 4, we could have a 5 fail past the 3000 leading to a bigger 2, or have an extended 5 push right towards the highs, possibly ending the bull market right there, or making an even larger 1 and 2. Just some thoughts—keep those prime counts coming.
@TradingLounge Good, it would be cool if it’s right and becomes helpful, but I’ll caution you that my original wave theories rarely work out, so don’t throw tomatoes at me if it’s totally wrong.
@TradingLounge Rick what do you think of the major resistance at 2965 and a large head and shoulders pattern going back to 2018 starting to form?
@TradingLounge ok, haha
It seems the prices want to keep trending higher. We are not achieving the expected lows. I suppose you just have to keep reevaluating with each price action. I am short around 2887. I suspect I should probably get out tomorrow
@TradingLounge Hi Pete. Thanks for your response. No I thought 2800 was first support and perhaps we move through to the downside after the expected bounce. Sounds like this is less likely scenario now. The markets open in two hours here and futures are slightly down. I could take a modest profit and then reenter the market after we pass the ‘troublesome area’. Lets see what happens. Thanks again 🙂
What are the possibilities that we just finished first wave down of the bigger C wave that goes below March low. I know you marked March low as wave 4 but will it be possible if we have ended the secular cycle and in a bear market?
TradingLounge we can recount the wave feb high as the wave 5 completion. And I’m not seeing 3 wave down during March sell off. It was clearly 5 impulsive waves down. That’s why I think that was the A wave. I do agree qqq kept making local highs kind of invalidates that last month run up was the B wave. However it’s just really difficult to see we are still chucking to make all time high with real economy being crap.
TradingLounge the wave 5 appeared to be shorter than expected. Only lasted about 1 month. The wave 3 of 5 was also very short but wave 5 of 5 was shorter so it did fit into 5 wave pattern. Let me see if I can find any link.
TradingLounge here’s a guy followed keeping his journal here. He doesn’t post chart though. Have to read through his post. He was predicting wave 5 to be a little higher. Tho it failed short, we still squeezed 5 waves out of it. But like you said it may be a stretch.
TradingLounge oops for got to post the link.
https://easytrade2.wordpress.com/
@TradingLounge sure! Let them paste a chart!
I watch ever post you make, Keep them coming I look forward to it. thank you
Thanks for the analysis. Looks like a double zigzag bounce up from the recent low but it did come up awfully fast. Will see what we get!
Looks like an X wave expanded flat to the 2.618, bounce at 2810?
My experience says that long fast wick at the bottom means, I’ll be back soon.
Great analysis
As I posted on another thread, its options expiration. Max pain for the SPY is 284 ish – so if it gets too big above or below that during the day take the opposite trade. This week has been about options – all will be revealed next week ………….
@TradingLounge Hi Pete – to be honest the manipulation starts before the Friday so without being sure of the direction the market would have gone and what +/- position they accumulated (that they don’t want) there’s no way of knowing. Chances are the futures will be a guide and I’d initially fade any early strength or weakness. Essentially Monday is Memorex and Tuesday is reality – LOL.
@TradingLoungeHi! Look to the cash market as your guide to the likely journey. Unfortunately Friday was when we knew the destination and the arrival time. There have been times in the past when post expiry was treated with an axe and others times with a scapel. The major players seem in control so there maybe more finesse than blugeoning this time around – though then again earnings this week maybe a motivator to square and cap cash positions in short order. I suppose I could have just said I don’t know – LOL. Sorry!
@TradingLounge So I favoured that the SPY’s were being kept afloat Friday but found it strange as the boys didn’t sell into the EOD ramp with the overshoot (which I put down to short covering) – it’s inconvienient that the SPY’s are being so widely used by everyone as their hedge against their long portfolio. I also didn’t understand the after hours selling. Anyhoo ….. I would assume they will ramp the futures O/N and then sell the longs they bought Friday – so a gap & cr*p and then back to distribution. All fwiw of course.
Well futures are running up …………. LOL. Hopefully they will keep them strong so I can short them early tomorrow.
@TradingLounge Thanks Pete – I got stopped out of my early short – fair enough. I was out the rest of the day so missed an interesting time!
thank you
Hi,
Those 5 wave structures going up really threw me too as I was expecting a corrective Pattern. I was aiming for a 61.8 retracement to the lower nr 2 . So I have relly been scratching my head . It was nice to hear you think of it as an impulsive wave.
Is there any way (in your opinion) that it is just a really complicated corrective second wave?
Love your work… You sounded a bit exhausted in todays Video… U ok?
Cheers!
Do you know what Elliott Waves usually happen in a cup-and-handle? This whole bull trap looks like an up-side-down coffee cup ☕
your volume is extremely low
big tech priced for perfection, how can market break 2950-3050 on SP 500 without big tech?